dummies for various types of elections), incidences of protest (also change in incidences of protest), inflation, income inequalities (e.g. Turnout can be measured in the aggregate by simply counting up the number who vote in an election. As for some of the previous variables, this finding suggests that the influence of close elections on turnout might be more complex than a simple rational choice model suggests (see Table 8). Third, I identify the most frequently used institutional, socioeconomic as well as circumstantial and election-specific variables from these studies. Fourth, I discuss the influence of the most widely used determinants of turnout more systematically than Cancela and Geys (2016). "shouldUseHypothesis": true, Third, I aim to discover whether the measurement of concepts matters. The majority of these studies report a negative effect that is, turnout is higher in rural regions (e.g. In the final part of this section, I also discuss some additional institutional variables that do not feature frequently in turnout models, such as registration requirements, but which might also have some importance in explaining macro-level electoral participation. Strict voter registration laws that demand a two-step process or require strict voter identification can reduce voter turnout. Frantzeskakis, Nikolaos Do these studies, which have been conducted in all regions of the world, across various geographical units, and which have brought to the fore more factors (e.g. Brown and Wedeking Reference Brown and Wedeking2006; Wagner et al. Gallego et al. Theoretically, there are strong arguments why proportional representation in large districts should trigger higher turnout. and Cambridge, MA 02139, 2022 Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Aldrich, John H. 1993. As young adults age, marry, and become parents, their sense of community and responsibility increases, while their apathy toward voting decreases, (Abramson 116). Voter turnout is not a topic that is new, but it has manifested itself more and more over the years, and it is now a huge topic of discussion in society. American Political Science Review80(2): 613624. federal government is immense. These minority groups include (not an exhaustive list): We have a detailed article on voter identification laws. A variety of factors can factor into calculations of voter turnout. The first efforts to summarize and synthesize this growing literature were the meta-analysis by Geys (Reference Geys2006) and Blais (Reference Blais2006) review article. The one reform that is most consistently correlated with higher levels of turnout is Election Day registration (EDR), although even here, there is disagreement over whether EDR causes higher turnout or if states with existing higher turnout levels are more likely to pass EDR laws (its probably a combination of the two). More than half of those ages 45 to 64 also cast a ballot. ", Riker, William H., and Peter C. Ordeshook. People who have never married are more likely to vote than those previously married (now separated, divorced, or widowed). Public Opinion Quarterly 56: 77 - 86. This variable, which depends on the previously discussed electoral institutions and the number of cleavages in a geographical area, could theoretically either have a positive or a negative influence on turnout. How does the type of election influence voter turnout? American Journal of Political Science37 (1):246278. A Review Article/Meta-Analysis Reference Stokes, Dunning, Nazareno and Brusco, Reference Burns, Lehman Schlozman and Verba, Reference Stockemer, LaMontagne and Scruggs, $$N\,{\equals}\,{1 \over {\mathop{\sum}\nolimits_{i\,{\equals}\,1}^n {p_{i}^{2} } }}$$, The European Voter: A Comparative Study of Modern Democracies, Individual Characteristics, Institutional Incentives and Electoral Abstention in Western Europe, The Introduction of Voter Registration and Its Effect on Turnout, NGOs and Political Participation in Weak Democracies: Subnational Evidence on Protest and Voter Turnout from Bolivia, Do Political Parties Matter for Turnout: Number of Parties, Electoral Rules and Local Elections in Brazil and Bolivia, Decline of U.S. Voter Turnout: Structural Explanations, The Paradox of Proportional Representation: The Effect of Party Systems and Coalitions on Individuals Electoral Participation, People Who Have Their Tickets But Do Not Use Them: Motor Voter, Registration, and Turnout Revisited, The Private Roots of Public Action: Gender, Equality, and Political Participation, Explaining Voter Turnout: A Meta-Analysis of National and Subnational Elections, Strategic Campaigning, Closeness, and Voter Mobilization in U.S. Presidential Elections, Violence, Bribery and Fraud: The Political Economy of Elections in Sub-Saharan Africa, Voter Turnout in the Indian States: An Empirical Analysis, Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties, The Return of the American Voter? For example, even if it rests below a 50 per cent success rate, district magnitude has a much higher likelihood of positively affecting turnout than dummy variables for various types of electoral system. Turnout is usually discussed as a ratio although always based on a count of votes cast. The number of parties is unrelated to electoral turnout in most cases. In the literature the number of parties is generally measured by the effective number of parties, a measure that accounts for the number of political parties weighted by their relative strength. Partisan and non-partisan mobilization efforts increase voter turnout during important elections. However, these studies are too few in number and the indicators are too different to draw any conclusions about globalizations influence on turnout. Circumstantial and election-specific variables are the least frequently used variables in turnout models. A long history of political science research has shown that the following demographic factors are associated with higher levels of voter turnout: more education, higher income, older age, and being married (see table below). For a more consistent measure, it is better to use a measure that reflects the population of possible voters. WHAT FACTORS DRIVE VOTER TURNOUT? The legal voting age has the expected negative association with turnout in only seven of 19 models. High voter turnout is often considered to be desirable, though among political scientists and economists specialising in public choice, the issue is still debated. Contrary to Geys (Reference Geys2006) and to a lesser degree Blais (Reference Blais2006), but also Cancela and Geys (2016), my study highlights that PR only has a positive effect on turnout in a minority of cases between 2004 and 2013. In the over 130 models in which the variable is used, it is positively and statistically significantly related to turnout in all but four cases (e.g. Many of those factors are outside. 5, Table 5 Summary of the Effect of Development on Electoral Turnout. Age, Race, and your level of education affect how you vote because you may not be as educated as the other person. the number of emigrants and immigrants per destination and origin) are available from the United Nations Division of Economic and Social Affairs (2013). Data from the United States Elections Project (USEP) indicates that 159.7 million voters participated in the 2020 presidential election. See all the organizations we serve ->, Explore resources to run better campaigns. In this section, I review the effects of the four most-used institutional variables, namely compulsory voting, the type of electoral system, the importance of the election and the number of parties. Over the years there has been significant, meticulous research done to try to pinpoint the cause of the decline in voter turnout over years. The numerator is the number of votes cast. is the square of each partys proportion of all seats. Advertisement They also controlled for other state laws . The impact of the rural-urban divide bias is of similar size and direction: Trump would suffer a 4% loss in votes if urban eligible voters were as likely to show up as rural voters and voted the same as those urban voters that did show up. and The two seminal works, by Powell (Reference Powell1986) and Jackman (Reference Jackman1987), largely defined the research agenda in the comparative voting literature. The importance of confidence in the American Foucault, Martial Gini coefficient), incumbent on ballot box, federalism, female voting population, financing regulations for parties, frequency of elections, gentrification, globalization (e.g. Published online by Cambridge University Press: In theory, every American citizen has an equal say in the political affairs of this county. Introduction The widest gender gap (recorded) in voter turnout for non-presidential elections was in 2018 when 51.8% of eligible men and 55% of women voted. Political parties and campaign managers approach every population of voters differently, based on what they know about factors that influence turnout. Of course, these personal factors cannot operate in isolation and are often influenced by sociological determinants. Focusing on Western democracies, these two scholars found that two institutions proportional representation (PR) and compulsory voting increase electoral turnout (see also Franklin Reference Franklin1999; Jackman and Miller Reference Jackman and Miller1995). Hence, it seems that the type of electoral system is no longer as strongly related to electoral participation as some studies assume (e.g. The weather plays a factor in the turnout of an election; a bright sunny day will have a higher turnout while a rainy, cold, and snowy day has lower turnouts. People under age 45 are. External (eligibility, mobilization, voter suppression). Since the pioneering studies of Powell (Reference Powell1982, Reference Powell1986) and Jackman (Reference Jackman1987), hundreds of analyses have tried to identify the constituents of macro-level electoral participation. In addition, individuals must register before any election is called (normally at least one month before the election date) (Brennan Center 2013). (Walker, 2000). This is a presentation to help explain the impacts of certain factors that affect voter turnout. Grofman and Selb Reference Grofman and Selb2011). The study provides a detailed picture of youth perceptions of politics and the factors that influence whether they participate in elections or not. Coding Voter Turnout Responses in the Current Population Survey. Public Opinion Quarterly 77(4); 985 993. Table 3 indicates that neither of the two hypotheses applies. In the 10 studies that employ the indicator, 17 of 28 models returned the expected negative relationship between non-automatic voter registration and lower turnout (e.g. Factors Affecting Voter Turnout Political scientists pay tremendous attention to voter turnout - examining all the factors that predict who will and won't show up to vote in an election. Tyburski, Michael D. To streamline these diverse findings, I have suggested three avenues for future research: (1) identify the context in which variables such as the electoral system type are salient; (2) systematically engage in comparative research that compares the turnout functions across various levels of analysis, countries or continents; and (3) focus on measurement of both the dependent variable and predictors of macro-level political participation such as development. A citizen's socioeconomic statusthe combination of education, income, and social statusmay also predict whether he or she will vote. For example, it is possible that various regional or, more specifically, country-specific contexts interact with many of the constituents of turnout, rendering their influence context-specific. socioeconomic status: how much money you and your family make . Even more importantly, future work should discuss the operationalization of the dependent variable. However, by merely confirming the consistent influence of three predictors on turnout, the findings of this meta-analysis are more conservative than the results of Cancela and Geys (2016). Race and ethnicity are significant factors in this. R. Abramson. Get Out the Vote: How to Increase Voter Turnout. 11 Matsubayashi and Wu Reference Matsubayashi and Wu2012). However, there was no real evidence supporting the claim, this being that rain helps the Republican Party during election seasons. Differences between voters and non-voters on other issues such as foreign policy are much less pronounced. for this article. The former calculates turnout based on the number of individuals that have the right to vote, because their name features on electoral lists. What factors affect voter turnout? For example, in Germany, every German national who has his or her first residency in the country is automatically registered. 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